In the Fibonacci sequence, each number is the sum of the preceding two numbers: 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21… This estimating method uses the Fibonacci sequence as a starting scale for comparing items. Agile estimating uses relative sizing to provide a realistic way for teams to forecast work. Luckily, people are good at comparing things. Unfortunately, humans are phenomenally bad at estimating and even worse when working in a complex domain like software development. When more is unknown than known, use relative sizing. But teams still need to estimate their work to forecast releases. The more ambiguous the requirement, the more difficult it is to calculate how long something will take. This intentionally incomplete plan works because they determine what is required through daily collaboration with the requestor during development. In an Agile approach, the developers only know enough to get started–they don’t know everything needed to complete an item. It’s a different approach than a traditional software lifecycle, but it is necessary. One of the reasons Agile frameworks work so well in complex domains, such as software development, is the balance of responding to change and getting something completed within specified, timeboxed iterations. Agile approaches continue to gain popularity because of the marketplace’s volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. I am swayed by irrelevant or misleading information, such as budget, so my estimate is biased.I have little experience or high time pressure therefore, the estimate is influenced.I don’t know enough about the requirements, so the size is a measure of my uncertainty.I know how to do it, so the size reflects my experience versus how complex the ask.However, even if detailed requirements are available, there are common concerns with absolute estimating. Absolute estimating may seem like a good approach when requirements are known, the environment is not complex, and the need is not urgent. Absolute estimating is the practice of applying an hourly, finite estimate to each requirement. A traditional or Waterfall software development lifecycle includes a long and detailed planning period to define requirements before beginning development. When more is known than unknown, use absolute estimating. O verview of Agile Estimating Ab solute vs. Background photo by Guilia May on Unsplash with edits by Author.
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